Economic Trends

April 15, 2004 Community Breakfast Comments
Economic Development/Chambers of Commerce Sector

What trends will affect the way you do business in 5 years?

Economy	Exodus of manufacturing jobs from the region. Healthcare/energy costs increasing. Cost of healthcare affecting ability to pay good-better wages and keep good employees. Continued rise in healthcare costs threatening businesses. Transition to a service economy. Increasing rate of change forcing an increasing need for professional development and on-going learning. Affordable housing supply for the "service industry employment" seems lacking. Being able to offer employment to both college-educated spouses. We cannot recruit educated, trained, experienced people because of lack of employment for the spouse. Economy continues to move toward resort/hospitality vs. the more high-paying, high-tech or manufacturing economy. How do we get more balance to provide higher-paying jobs? Less people with employer-paid health insurance or health insurance at a lower level of benefits. Larger national and regional firms entering the game. Pressure to improve quality and reduce costs. Land values increasing. Pressure for more "smart growth" projects. Pressure on smaller supplier - Big Boxes taking over supply market - purchasing power shifting. "Service Sector" will need continued upgrades; it's not just flipping burgers anymore. Overseas competition is putting tremendous pressure on our customers and in turn on us. More manufacturing positions moving off shore; therefore, a need to re-educate employees to perform the jobs which are staying and expanding in the area. Requests for more service at a lesser cost. Increased tourism. Growing demand for services at the local level. Push for public input in decision making - data-driven decision making. Consolidation of companies in industry (financial services) - fewer companies and people providing more products and services. Smaller companies - more entrepreneurs. Our business provides support services for business. As the region continues to grow, we see modest growth for our business; however, the trend of outward migration of our young people will continue to pose challenges in finding and keeping qualified workers. Meeting community demands, wants and/or needs with decreased resources. Lower wage jobs replacing manufacturing jobs, i.e. retail, service, tourism. Grand Traverse area has lost many manufacturing jobs, particularly low-skill automotive assembly jobs. Retaining higher skilled jobs will be necessary for retention of manufacturing companies. Cutting edge processes will be the future of this industry. "Churn" among businesses. Growing frustration over competitiveness of Northern Michigan business climate. Increased education required for employment. Entrepreneurial manufacturing doing well as we see a reduction in mass manufacturing (automobiles, etc.). Increased demand for professionalism of construction methods. More and more people working out of their homes, using all sorts of communication devices - phone, fax, computers, etc. Change in economy away from manufacturing jobs and more toward productivity and increased services. Our local reliance on tourism will continue to be most important to our area.
Government	Greater lack of trust in government at all levels and impression of less capable government decision-making. Increased regulatory burden, i.e. environment, zoning. Increased workplace regulation, which will drive administrative costs in human resources. Shrinking federal and state funding for essential services. Loss of the sense of civic necessity/importance. Continued funding stresses via state and federal sources for nonprofits. Government deregulation.
Technology	More business being conducted over the internet. Increasing dependence on technology. Greater acceptance of virtual work/vendor relationships. Quickly advancing technology. "Transparency" of organizations due to information transfer. Wireless connectivity - real time dispatching, data transfer and information sharing of field & service personnel with home office.
Demographics	Demographics of work force are changing with a higher percentage of limited English speakers moving to the area. More retired, talented people moving here. (How to plug them in?) Affordable living conditions. More entrepreneurial people coming to the region who attract more of the same. Smart people, in the end, will direct the "ship" (our community) in the right direction. Aging workforce that will put pressure on the college to become more attuned to needs of this group. (Elder care, retirement, partial retirement.) Out of control sprawl will make TC just like everywhere. Do we know what the baby boomers want? They will continue to drive so much. Rise of "The Creative Class"; arts, recreation, culture, exciting active sports, casinos, entertainment and education (life-long) will dramatically grow. "Boomlet" generation, now about 10 to 20 years old, will be available for the labor force if trained and retained in the region. Population growth. Continued sprawl pushing businesses/homes outside core TC. More development, sprawl, pressure on resources, quality of life.
Global	World is changing. Terrorism makes travel more problematic, particularly global travel. Globalization means increased demands for reduced costs, increased efficiency. More globalization of all aspects of business.
Education	Costs of education are getting out-of-reach for many families. NMC's nonprofit courses, certifications, and annual conference are a valuable asset to the community. Fewer people have skills to do restoration work. People are less equipped with skills to market/manage non-profit organizations.

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